Balance of Payments
- Measure of money inflows and outflows between the U.S. and the Rest Of the World (ROW)
- Inflows are referred to as CREDITS (liability)
- Outflows are referred to as DEBITS (Assets)
- The Balance of Payments is divided into 3 accounts
- Current Account
- Capital/ Finance Account
- Official Reserve Account
Double Entry Bookkeeping
- Every transaction in the balance of payments is recorded twice in accordance with standard accounting practice
- Example: U.S. manufacturer, John Deere, exports $50 million worth of farm equipment to Ireland
- A credit of $50 million to the current account
- A debit of $50 million to the capital financial account
- Notice that the two transactions offset each other. Theoretically the balance payment should always equal zero
Current Account
- Balance of Trade or Net Exports
- Exports of goods/services-import of goods and services
- Exports create a credit to the balance of payment
- Imports create a debit to the balance of payments
- Net Foreign Income
- Income earned by U.S. owned foreign assets-income paid to foreign held U.S. assets
- Ex: Interest payments on U.S. owned Brazilian Bonds
- Interest payments on German owned U.S. Treasury Bonds
- Net Transfer
- Tend to be unilateral
- Foreign Aid is a debit to the current account
- Ex: Mexican migrant workers send money back
Capital/ Financial Account
- The balance of capital ownership
- Includes the purchase of both real and financial assets
- Direct investment in the U.S. is a credit to the capital account
- Ex: Toyota Factory in San Antonio
- Direct investment by the U.S. firms/individuals in a foreign country are debits to the capital account
- Ex: Intel factory in San Jose, Costa Rica
- Purchase of foreign financial assets represents a debit to the capital account
- Ex: Warren Buffet buys stock in Petro-China
- Purchase of domestic financial assets by foreigners represents a credit to the capital account
- The United Arab Emirats sovereign wealth fund purchases a large stake in the NASDAQ
What Causes Capital/ Financial Funds
- Differences in rates of return on investment
- Ceteris Paribus, savings will flow toward higher returns
Relationship Between Current and Capital Account
- The foreign currency holdings of the U.S. Federal Reserve system
- When there is a balance of payment surplus the Fed accumulates foreign currency and debits the balance of payments
- The official reserves zero out everything
- When there is a balance of payments deficit the Fed depletes it reserves of foreign currency and credits the balance of payments
Credits VS. Debits
- Credits: Additions to a nation's account
- Debits: Subtractions to a nation's account
How To Calculate the Following
- Balance on trade
- (Merchandise + service export)-(merchandise + service imports)
- Trade deficit occurs when the balance on trade is negative (imports>exports)
- Trade surplus occurs when the balance on trade is positive
- Balance on Current Account
- (Balance on trade(exports + imports)) + Net Investment Income + Transfer Payments
- Official Reserves
- Nationally
- ^CA + ^FA + ^Official Reserves = 0
Foreign Exchange (FOREX)
- The buying and selling of currency
- ex: In order to purchase souvenirs in France, it is first necessary for Americans to sell (supply) their dollars and buy (demand) Euros
- The exchange rate (e) is determined in the foreign currency markets
- Ex: The current exchange rate is approcimately 77 Japanese Yen to 1 U.S. dollar
- Simply put, the exchange rate is the price of a currency
- Do not try to calculate the exact exchange rate
Balance of Payments
- Assets Vs. Liabilities aka Inflows vs. Outflows
- Measure of money inflows and outlfows between the US and the Rest of the World
- Inflows as CREDITS
- Outflows Reserves Account
Fixed Exchange Rate: Determined by government policy
Changes in Exchange Rates
- Exchange rates are a function of the supply and demand for currency
- An increase in supply of a currency will decrease the exchange rate of a currency
- A decrease in supply of a currency will increase the exchange rate of currency
Appreciation and Depreciation
- Appreciation: of a currency occurs when the exchange rate of the currency increases
- Depreciation of a currency occurs when the exchange rate of the currency decreases
- Ex: Of German tourists flock to America to go shopping then the supply of euros will increase and the demand for dollars will increase. This will cause the Euro to depreciate and the dollar to appreciate
Exchange Rate Determinants:
- Consumer Task
- Ex: A preference for Japanese goods create an increase in the supply of dollars in the currency exchange market which leads to depreciation of the dollar and an appreciation of Yen
Relative Income
- If Mexico's economy is stong and the U.S. economy is in a recessions, the Mexicans will buy more American goods, increasing the demand for the dollar, causing the dollar to appreciate and the peso to depreciate
Relative Price Level
- If the price level is higher in Canada than in the U.S. then American goods are relatively cheaper. Canadians will import more American goods causing the U.S. dollar to appreciate and the Canadian dollar to depreciate
Speculation
- If the U.S. investors expect that Swiss interest rates will climb in the future, the Americans will demand Swiss money
Tips
- Always change the D line on one currency graph, the S line on the other currency graph
- Move the lines of the two currency graphs in the same direction (right or left) and you will have the correct answer
Advantages
- Absolute: Faster, more, more efficient
- Comparative: Lower Opportunity Cost
Specialization
- Producing according to comparative advantage